The Unjust Energy Transition?

The Global South Energy Transition: Lessons in Pragmatism from Singapore

Introduction: The Dilemma of Developmental Asymmetry

The global energy transition is fraught with a fundamental asymmetry: the nations that contributed least to historical emissions are now asked to forgo the very fossil-fuel-powered path that built the industrialized world.

For countries in the Global South, this mandate often feels like a cruel paradox — a demand to solve a problem they did not create, using expensive technologies for which they often lack financing or infrastructure, while sacrificing their own economic aspirations.

This paradox is personal for me. Through my work and connection to Haiti — a nation blessed with abundant solar, wind, and hydropower potential yet crippled by energy poverty — I’ve seen firsthand that the issue is not scarcity, but systemic barriers. The transition is not merely a technological shift; it is a profound test of justice, access, and execution.

And yet, within this challenge lies both necessity and opportunity. The city-state of Singapore, despite its unique context, embodies this dilemma with rare clarity and offers a masterclass in pragmatic, strategic navigation.

A necessary clarification is in order. The core challenge for the Global South is not necessarily a lack of natural resources; many emerging economies are rich in sun, wind, and critical minerals. The true bottleneck is a scarcity of strategic leverage: the capital, infrastructure, and technological sovereignty to transform natural endowments into affordable, reliable energy for their own development. Singapore’s relevance is not as a member of the Global South, but as the ultimate case study in overcoming this exact scarcity of leverage. Starting with no resources whatsoever, it was forced to master the system—the finance, the strategy, the governance—required for energy security.

Its experience shows that the transition, while unjust in its origins, can be reframed as a pathway to energy sovereignty, economic resilience, and future-proof growth for the Global South.

Part 1: The Core Challenges — Why the Global South's Transition is Uniquely Difficult

The universal challenges of the energy transition are magnified in the Global South. The principles of navigating them however, are vividly illustrated by Singapore's strategic response to its own extreme constraints.

1. The Equity Deficit and the Sovereignty Question

The Global North’s carbon debt is not an abstract concept; it’s a tangible barrier to development.Singapore’s own history underscores this truth in another context: though now prosperous, it began with nothing — no water, no oil, and no land to spare. Its rise was built not on resource advantage, but on pragmatism, discipline, and strategic foresight in the face of structural unfairness.

That same mindset now shapes its position in the global climate dialogue. Singapore acknowledges the inequity of asking developing nations to decarbonize without support, and it consistently calls for differentiated responsibilities and practical pathways tailored to each nation’s context.

This resonates deeply with larger Global South countries that seek the right to develop on their own terms — not as climate delinquents, but as sovereign actors pursuing balanced progress through strategy, not sympathy.

2. The Geospatial and Resource Constraint (Beyond Cost)

While cost is a universal barrier, many nations face a more fundamental lack of natural resources or usable space. Singapore is the ultimate case study: no rivers for hydropower, negligible wind, and severe land scarcity.

Its challenge is not simply affording solar panels — it’s finding where to put them. This mirrors the struggles of small-island states, dense megacities, and land-constrained economies across the South.

3. Intermittency as an Existential Grid Threat

For nations with under-invested or fragile grids, adding large shares of variable renewables can easily trigger instability or blackouts.Even Singapore — with one of the world’s most reliable and technologically advanced grids — treats intermittency as its foremost technical challenge. Its vast floating-solar installations are constrained not by ambition or funding, but by the physical limits of what the grid can safely absorb without large-scale storage.

The lesson is stark: reliability is as important as renewability. If grid integration is a challenge even for advanced systems, the barrier for countries with weaker infrastructure is exponentially greater. Financial capital alone cannot close that gap; it must be paired with institutional discipline and technical capacity.

4. Entrenched Stakeholders as Economic Pillars

In many developing economies, fossil fuels are not just lobbies — they are lifelines, providing jobs, revenue, and foreign exchange. Singapore faces a parallel dilemma with its Jurong Island petrochemical complex: a rapid phase-out would destabilize its economy.

The message is clear: the transition must be a managed evolution, not a moral revolution.

“Dogma is a luxury. For developing nations, pragmatism is survival.”

Part 2: The Singapore Playbook — A Pragmatic Blueprint for Navigation

Singapore’s success does not lie in abundance but in strategic constraint management. Its path provides a replicable framework of principles, if not identical policies, for others in the Global South.

1. Reframe the Narrative — From Burden to Imperative

Singapore’s Action: The Singapore Green Plan 2030 is framed not as charity toward the planet, but as a national survival strategy against sea-level rise and a roadmap for economic diversification. Green finance, carbon services, and sustainable tourism are treated as growth sectors — not obligations.

Lesson for the Global South: Recast the transition as self-interest, not sacrifice. It’s not a concession to the Global North — it’s the foundation of a resilient, sovereign economy for the 21st century.

2. Strategic Pragmatism — The “Four Switches”

Singapore’s Action: Acknowledging that it cannot leap directly to 100% renewables, Singapore built a phased system: maximizing solar, expanding regional power trade, investing in R&D for hydrogen, and using natural gas as a transitional stabilizer.

Lesson for the Global South:

• Embrace Bridge Fuels: Replacing coal with natural gas can provide the stability and lower emissions needed to scale renewables safely.

• Think Regionally: Initiatives like the ASEAN Power Grid show that shared infrastructure can turn geography from a weakness into strength. No nation is an energy island.

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3. Leverage Comparative Advantage — Move Up the Value Chain

Singapore’s Action: Without physical resources, Singapore became a hub for green finance and carbon services. It doesn’t merely attract investment — it allocates it strategically.

Lesson for the Global South: Identify what your country can uniquely offer:

• Solar and wind potential → become a green-energy exporter.

• Mineral resources → build battery and materials industries.

• Tech capabilities → develop grid management software or AI optimization tools. The goal: own part of the value chain, not just the raw inputs.

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4. State-Led, Managed Transition for Incumbent Industries

Singapore’s Action: Instead of dismantling its petrochemical sector, the government works with it to deploy carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) and efficiency gains — protecting jobs while greening the industry.

Lesson for the Global South: A just transition must include fossil-fuel-dependent sectors. That means retraining workers, incentivizing retrofits, and diversifying local economies to sustain political support and avoid social unrest.

Part 3: Structural Realities — Finance and Institutional Continuity

Even the best strategy can falter in the face of unequal financing conditions. The cost of capital in emerging markets remains two to three times higher than in advanced economies, slowing renewable deployment and distorting competitiveness.

A “just transition” must therefore include financial justice: de-risking capital flows, reforming multilateral lending, and rewarding credible policy frameworks.

Singapore’s own journey illustrates another essential ingredient: institutional continuity. Its long-term planning, policy discipline, and technocratic governance turned 10-year plans into 50-year outcomes. For many Global South nations, the true challenge is not ideas — it’s execution over time.

Conclusion: From Singapore’s Atypical Case to Universal Principles

Singapore is, in many ways, an atypical member of the Global South — small, wealthy, and hyper-urbanized. Yet its story is profoundly instructive. It shows that the toughest dimensions of the energy transition - fairness, cost, reliability, and political dynamics - can be managed through a blend of pragmatism, foresight, and disciplined leadership.

The lesson is not to replicate Singapore’s policies, but to adopt its mindset — to treat the energy transition not as a punitive constraint, but as a national reinvention project.

By focusing on energy sovereignty, economic opportunity, and strategic diversification, the Global South can turn the unfair foundations of this global imperative into an engine for sustainable progress.

The greatest resource in this transition is not sunlight or wind — it is foresight, innovation, and relentless pragmatism.